Caribou, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

242
FXUS61 KCAR 152221
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
621 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system approaches from the north this evening, then
settles across northern Maine late tonight and Friday. Another
low pressure system moves in from the west Saturday through
Sunday, then slowly exits to the east on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
6:15 PM Update...Temperatures contrast across the area from near
80 over the northeast where the solar heating was greatest, to
the 60s over the western highlands where some showers have
cooled the air. Some convective showers continue in the west.
However, no lightning has been obsvered in these showers.
Downgraded thunderstorms to only isolated in areas where we had
scattered thunderstorms. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.

Previous discussion...
Isolated to scattered shower/storm activity may be a bit slow to
dissipate this evening over the north thanks to backdoor cold
front approaching from the north, allowing for some low-level
convergence over central/northern Aroostook just ahead of the
front. Thus, kept 40 PoPs mainly into the evening. Dry
elsewhere tonight. Mild with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. Fog
this evening spreads north into the waters and onshore,
gradually marching north through the night as fog or perhaps
just low clouds further inland. Fog could be dense along the
coast, and perhaps up to Bangor as well.

Friday...
Backdoor cold front slides south/southwest and gets hung up a
bit along the central highlands. Looks much cooler over eastern
portions of the area behind the backdoor cold front, and
undercut guidance in this area based on usual biases. Going for
highs in the low 60s over Eastern Aroostook, ranging to the low
to mid 70s over western portions of the area. Abundant low
clouds Friday especially along/east of the backdoor cold front.

Concern Friday of some slow-moving showers/storms with heavy
downpours and a threat of localized flash flooding. Most likely
this would occur along/just west of the backdoor cold front,
from the central highlands and Moosehead Lake into the North
Woods. Airmass is fairly moist, and with the virtually zero
storm motion, some CAMs are producing very locally over 6 inches
of rain. Going to highlight this in hazardous weather outlook
and added heavy downpours to the grids. Again, the area with
this threat is fairly small and appears limited to around the
central highlands and Moosehead Lake into the western North
Woods. Other places could get a shower, but nothing significant.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday night...The occluded front will gradually move into the
region. Models indicate CAD setting in north of the Central
Highlands. This should keep higher rainfall amounts to the
western border. Temps should be in the 50s across the area.

Saturday...The triple point of the occlusion should start to
move closer to the area from the SW. Extended models are in
fairly good agreement with the timing and track of the system,
so increased rain chances across the south. The CAD should stick
around most of the day, keeping temps in the upper 50s in the
north and low 50s in the south.

Saturday night...The triple point will slowly progress across
the area. Models indicate possible heavier bands of rain in the
north, though chances will reduce with the center of the triple
point moving over the region.

Sunday...Rain should continue throughout the day as the new
center of the low settles over the region. Cloudy skies and the
cooler NW airmass should keep temps in the upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The large vertically stacked upper level trof will move off to
the E by the beginning of next week. This should bring chances
of rain through until Tuesday night. Model show uncertainty on
if/when the rain will clear out. The GFS and Euro show light
rain showers while the CmC shows little to no rain. Decided to
go with slight chance. Another low pressure system could move in
by the weekend, but models are inconsistent buy this time. Temps
show a consistent cooling trend with up to 10 degrees cooler
than normal for daytime highs. Low temps have a potential of
reaching to frost levels in the north, but unsure with the
unknown tracks of the next system.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Tonight...
VFR conditions this afternoon will be replaced with
IFR from south to north this evening and overnight. BGR/BHB
likely to get LIFR from fog and low clouds, and this will begin
shortly after sunset. The low clouds make it up to Aroostook
terminals after midnight. A few thunderstorms possible around
GNR late this afternoon. Light south breeze tonight.

Friday...
Gradual improvement over Downeast terminals such as BHB/BGR,
with possible MVFR or low VFR toward afternoon mainly inland
from the immediate coast such as at BGR. Further north from
MLT/HUL north, IFR may be replaced by MVFR toward late morning,
but it is doubtful that it will improve to VFR during the
afternoon. Variable winds less than 10 kts. Localized
thunderstorms mainly around GNR Friday afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Fri night - Mon: MVFR with occasional IFR in
showers. Brief LIFR fog possible at coastal terminals through
Sat. Steadier rain across all terminals Sat night. SE winds 5 to
10 kts shifting N to NW Sun into Mon. Winds could increase to
10 to 15 kts Mon afternoon.

Tues...Mainly MVFR in rain showers. N winds 10-15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Below small craft, with areas of fog tonight and
Friday.


SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions for
all waters through Tuesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Foisy
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...Foisy/LaFlash
Marine...Foisy/LaFlash